Breakpoint analysis identifies values of a variable at which a change occurs, e.g. a management option fails, or the preferred solution changes.
When to use
While breakpoint analysis is a general concept, it can specifically be used for decision making in the face of multiple plausible futures to perform vulnerability analysis (which is itself a form of stress testing).
Breakpoint analysis needs to be evaluate success/failure while varying values of a variable, and therefore requires a system model where the relevant variables can be modified by an external algorithm.
How
A range of algorithms are possible depending on the number of variables and the nature of the boundary between success and failure. In general, the boundary forms a lower dimensional "manifold" in model scenario space, such that even with only two variables there are an infinite number of possible breakpoints. Selecting interesting breakpoints is therefore a key issue.
Specific approaches implementing breakpoint analysis include:- Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE), which uses optimisation to report the changes in each variable required to change the preferred management option
- Crossover point scenarios, i.e. scenarios where the preferred option changes
- Info-gap decision theory