Vulnerability analysis identifies conditions in which management options can fail, either in terms of model parameter values or as scenarios.
When to use
This is a form of stress testing where the focus is specifically on identifying failures (or successes), as opposed to mapping performance or comparing alternatives.
A clear definition of success/failure is needed to identify a vulnerability.
How
Both quantitative and qualitative methods can be applied, with or without a model.
Approaches include:- Scenario development, e.g. constructing narratives in which failure might occur
- Scenario discovery, which commonly identifies regions in model scenario space where policy failures occur.
- Breakpoint analysis, which identifies parameter values at which conclusions change, e.g. policy failures occur
- Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE), which uses optimisation to report the changes in each variable required to change the preferred management option
- Crossover point scenarios, which identify the closest scenarios where the preferred option changes, either numerically or within participatory methods
- Info-gap decision theory, which identifies the deviation from a best estimate (“uncertainty horizon”) within which an action will robustly provide a minimum acceptable “reward” or within which a windfall may be achieved, quantified respectively as “robustness” and “opportuneness”.
- Optimisation-based hypothesis testing, which seeks to identify plausible model scenarios that falsify a hypothesis